Prospects for the development of the Russian meat and meat products market in the context of new challenges

Abstract. Topicality of adjusting the targets of agri-food policy and food security policy in Russia is determined by changes in both external and internal conditions for agri-food complex functioning. Macroeconomic forecasts create the basis for revising and adapting the directions of development of the main sectors of the agri-food complex. The purpose of this study is to develop alternative forecasts for the production and consumption of main types of meat and meat products in Russia to substantiate strategies for domestic market development. Methods. General scientific methods of cognition were used, such as dialectics, analysis and synthesis, and monographic methods. Forecast calculations were carried out using economic and mathematical methods. The scientific novelty of the study is as follows: the development of a methodological approach to substantiate the prospects for the development of meat and meat products production considering the balance of the meat products market and the consistency of conflicting targets in the field of import substitution, physical and economic accessibility of food for the country's population. The methodological recommendations developed during the study can serve as the scientific basis for midterm development programs of individual segments of the Russian food market. Results. It was revealed that in the short term, new challenges related to economic sanctions and COVID-19 had minor impact on the meat and meat products market. Limiting barriers to development are systemic economic problems: demographic situation and low real income. Alternative forecasts for development of markets for the main types of meat were developed.