COVID-19 risk perception and food security in the MENA region: evidence from a multi-wave household survey

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic had disruptive consequences for MENA countries’ agri-food value chains that exacerbated poverty and jeopardized food security. This study examines the relationship between individuals’ perception of contracting COVID-19 and their experience of food insecurity, using longitudinal data from the Combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household survey. It also investigates the underlying mechanisms of COVID-19 concerns and explores coping strategies employed by households to identify vulnerabilities in food security. The results provide compelling evidence of a strong association between individuals’ concern about the virus and various dimensions of food security, particularly reduced purchasing power and decreased meal frequency. Notably, this association follows an inverted U-shaped curve, with food insecurity initially increasing as worry grows, but declining after individuals contract the virus. High levels of concern were also linked to significant income decreases and worsening economic conditions. Moreover, individuals with higher concerns were more likely to rely on specific coping strategies, particularly spending savings and obtaining funds from relatives or friends. These findings underscore the need for government interventions during disease outbreaks and economic downturns to focus on alleviating individuals’ worry and fear to facilitate informed decision-making that minimizes food insecurity consequences. Additionally, the findings emphasize the need to strengthen social protection systems during public health and economic challenges to ensure food security for vulnerable populations.