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Background. A prior single-center, retrospective cohort study identified baseline lung allograft dysfunction (BLAD) as a risk factor for death in bilateral lung transplant recipients. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we test the association of BLAD with death in bilateral lung transplant recipients, identify clinical risk factors for BLAD, and assess its association with allograft injury on the molecular level. Methods. This multicenter, prospective cohort study included 173 bilateral lung transplant recipients that underwent serial pulmonary function testing and plasma collection for donor-derived cell-free DNA at prespecified time points. BLAD was defined as failure to achieve ≥80% predicted for both forced expiratory volume in 1 s and forced vital capacity after lung transplant, on 2 consecutive measurements at least 3 mo apart. Results. BLAD was associated with increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.05-3.69; P = 0.03) but not chronic lung allograft dysfunction alone (hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI, 0.87-2.95; P = 0.13). Recipient obesity (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.15-2.80; P = 0.04) and donor age (odds ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05; P = 0.004) increased the risk of developing BLAD. Patients with BLAD did not demonstrate higher log 10 (donor-derived cell-free DNA) levels compared with no BLAD (slope SE: –0.0095 0.0007 versus –0.0109 0.0007; P = 0.15). Conclusions. BLAD is associated with an increased risk of death following lung transplantation, representing an important posttransplant outcome with valuable prognostic significance; however, early allograft specific injury on the molecular level does not increase the risk of BLAD, supporting further mechanistic insight into disease pathophysiology.
Keller et al. (Wed,) studied this question.