Predicting Soil Erosion Using RUSLE and GeoSOS-FLUS Models: A Case Study in Kunming, China

Revealing the relationship between land use changes and soil erosion provides a reference for formulating future land use strategies. This study simulated historical and future soil erosion changes based on the RULSE and GeoSOS-FLUS models and used a random forest model to explain the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic factors on soil erosion. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, significant changes in land use occurred in Kunming, with a continuous reduction in woodland, grassland, and cropland, being converted into construction land, which grew by 195.18% compared with 1990. (2) During this period, the soil erosion modulus decreased from 133.85 t/(km²·a) in 1990 to 130.32 t/(km²·a) in 2020, with a reduction in soil loss by 74,485.46 t/a, mainly due to the conversion of cropland to construction and ecological lands (woodland, grassland). (3) The expansion of construction land will continue, and it is expected that by 2050, the soil erosion modulus will decrease by 3.77 t/(km²·a), 4.27 t/(km²·a), and 3.27 t/(km²·a) under natural development, rapid development, and ecological protection scenarios, respectively. However, under the cropland protection scenario, the soil erosion modulus increased by 0.26 t/(km²·a) compared with 2020. (4) The spatial pattern of soil erosion is influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors, and as human activities intensify in the future, the influence of anthropogenic factors will further increase. Traditionally, the expansion of construction land is thought to increase soil loss. Our study may offer a new perspective and provide a reference for future land use planning and soil loss management in Kunming.