Monitoring hydrodynamic vessel performance by incremental machine learning using in-service data

An adaptive machine learning framework is established for an implicit determination of the performance degradation of a ship due to marine growth, i.e. biofouling. The framework is applied in a case study considering telemetry data of a cruise ship operating predominantly in the Caribbean Sea. The dataset encompasses seven years including three dry-docking intervals and several in-water cleaning events. The COVID-19 period receives special focus due to the drastic change in the operational profile. A main outcome of the study is a comparison of the derived performance estimate to the corresponding results of the industry standard ISO 19030. Additional aspects of the present study include the use of special regularization techniques for incremental machine learning and the increase of transparency through the implementation of prediction intervals indicating model uncertainty. Overall, it is found that the developed machine learning framework shows good agreement with the industry standard underlining its plausibility.