Socio-ecological tradeoffs between household wealth and water stress in global mining areas

Abstract Rising global demand for minerals to support continued economic development and the Green Transition is expanding areas of extraction across the planet. While mineral extraction often necessitates substantial transformation of the immediate landscape, whether these activities contribute to positive outcomes for the local communities and minimize natural resource competition of targeted areas has not been assessed globally, with previous investigations largely limited to case studies or missing an assessment of multiple dimensions of sustainability. Here we perform a comprehensive analysis of the associations between mining activities, rural household wealth, and water scarcity across for 19 major minerals (selected either due to their importance for the green energy transition or their overall volumes of extraction) and 27 countries in the Global South. Combining georeferenced information on 1373 large-scale mining locations and 63 household surveys (encompassing 1.32 million households) on wealth within a mixed effects modelling approach while controlling for a suite of economic, demographic, and environmental factors known to be associated with household wealth, we find that only 22% of countries (6 out of 27) show significant increases in household wealth associated with greater proximity to mines, suggesting that anticipated economic benefits to local communities may not be the norm. Further, depending on the focus mineral and considering much larger global dataset of mines about 8103, we find that between 45% and 50% of mine operations are located in water-scarce regions (i.e., water withdrawals more then 40% then total available blue water) and may be exacerbating water competition with local communities and other water users and needs. Finally, in directly comparing wealth and water scarcity, we identify win-win (e.g., Liberia, Gabon) and lose-lose (e.g., Armenia, Dominican Republic, India, Kyrgyzstan, Philippines, and South Africa) countries where mines tend to be associated with (un)realized household wealth benefits and (non)minimal water competition. Ensuring win-wins that both benefit the livelihoods of local communities and minimize environmental impact and natural resource competition is the crux of sustainable mining development, but our findings highlights that such socio-environmental co-benefits are often not achieved. As such, our study underscores the need for more inclusive policies that prioritize local benefits and environmental sustainability.