Development of the Polish Power Sector towards Energy Neutrality—The Scenario Approach

This article discusses three scenarios for the transformation of the Polish power system leading to the achievement of climate neutrality through investment in renewable energy sources. The scenarios differ in terms of the role played by the selected energy technologies. The scenarios were developed using the balancing tool, the Simulator Polish Power System, which analyzed the development of the national power system in terms of optimal costs of achieving climate neutrality and the lowest possible price of electricity generation. The research shows that under Polish climatic conditions, 100% RES energy can be achieved in the balance, but ensuring the continuity of energy supply, which in future will be generated mainly from this type of source, requires the participation of controllable sources such as gas-fired power plants powered by biomethane and energy storage facilities. The scenarios assume balancing RES sources with 15–25 GW of available gas sources and 40 GWh in electricity storage. The article also discusses factors limiting the suggested scenarios, such as the availability of sustainable biomethane in Poland or limitations associated with the possibility of building onshore and offshore wind turbines.