The ramifications of emerging mobility modes on active travel

The current study reports how the adoption of emerging travel modes might change the prevalence of active travel (i.e., walking and biking) in the future. Results from a national survey in Norway indicate that, overall, increased use of emerging modes such as electric vehicles (EVs), autonomous vehicles (AVs), mobility services, and e-scooters does not significantly relate to the share of active travel. Neither ridesharing nor the use of AVs or e-scooters show any significant association with either a decrease or increase in active travel. Nevertheless, the role of e-bikes (shared/private) is noteworthy, as they are statistically less likely to replace traditional active travel modes. However, e-bikes do not show a positive correlation with increased rates of walking and biking (shared/private). Individuals who anticipate maintaining the same level of EV and carsharing use in the future as they do presently are less likely to reduce their walking frequency. In summary, while the promotion of emerging mobility modes may not pose a substantial threat to active travel, they do not appear to present a significant opportunity for increasing active travel participation.