The many faces of uncertainty: a comment to Lofstedt and Bouder

Risk and uncertainty communication of often directed towards addressing the relevance and meaning of probability distributions over negative outcomes and statistical confidence intervals. As much as a professional handling of complex mathematical operations is needed, this will cover only a fraction of what uncertainty communication needs to addres. In those cases where estimates of uncertainty come close to educated guesses, simple beliefs or even total ignorance, other important cues may be more important than formal expertise in risk assessments. These include trust in the risk management agencies or other influential actors, personal experience, indigenous or community-based knowledge, common sense and argumentative or persuasive power. Once the full range of uncertainty is in the focus of risk managemem and communication institutions, an interdisciplinary, inclusive and demand-driven communication strategy needs to be developed. As recommended in the paper by Lofstedt and Bouder, such a targeted approach to risk and uncertainty communication requires interdisciplinary expertise, competence in the social and natural sciences, and practical experience in designing public discourses.