Ransomware as a threat to peace and security: understanding and avoiding political worst-case scenarios

Ransomware is arguably the most disruptive cyber-dependent crime to date. It not only causes considerable economic loss globally but it also threatens public services and security such as critical infrastructure including public transport and healthcare facilities. In this paper, our aim is to foster a better understanding of the threat to peace and security, as well as facilitate debates on effective institutional remedies in a multilateral context. We will, therefore, engage in scenario building to identify plausible linkages between ransomware and political escalation at various levels. Three such linkages or causal chains are conceivable in our view. First, ransomware may aggravate the under-provision of basic public services within fragile societies and thus fuel intra-state conflicts around inequality and economic disparities. Second, amid geostrategic competition, increased high-tech sanctions and export controls may be undermined by state-sponsored cybercrime. Lastly, the risk of unintended escalation stemming from misattribution or operational errors is increasing. Following a risk analysis of the three aforementioned causal chains, we will then move to possible institutional remedies and address the numerous factors hindering progress at the global level.