Machine learning models for predicting early hemorrhage progression in traumatic brain injury

Abstract This study explores the progression of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with mild to moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI). It aims to predict the risk of ICH progression using initial CT scans and identify clinical factors associated with this progression. A retrospective analysis of TBI patients between January 2010 and December 2021 was performed, focusing on initial CT evaluations and demographic, comorbid, and medical history data. ICH was categorized into intraparenchymal hemorrhage (IPH), petechial hemorrhage (PH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Within our study cohort, we identified a 22.2% progression rate of ICH among 650 TBI patients. The Random Forest algorithm identified variables such as petechial hemorrhage (PH) and countercoup injury as significant predictors of ICH progression. The XGBoost algorithm, incorporating key variables identified through SHAP values, demonstrated robust performance, achieving an AUC of 0.9. Additionally, an individual risk assessment diagram, utilizing significant SHAP values, visually represented the impact of each variable on the risk of ICH progression, providing personalized risk profiles. This approach, highlighted by an AUC of 0.913, underscores the model’s precision in predicting ICH progression, marking a significant step towards enhancing TBI patient management through early identification of ICH progression risks.