The association between the triglyceride–glucose index and the risk of cardiovascular disease in US population aged ≤ 65 years with prediabetes or diabetes: a population-based study

Abstract Background The relationship between the triglyceride–glucose (TyG) index and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the U.S. population under 65 years of age with diabetes or prediabetes is unknown. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between baseline TyG index and CVD risk in U.S. patients under 65 years of age with diabetes or prediabetes. Methods We used data from the 2003–2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Multivariate regression analysis models were constructed to explore the relationship between baseline TyG index and CVD risk. Nonlinear correlations were explored using restricted cubic splines. Subgroup analysis and interaction tests were also conducted. Results The study enrolled a total of 4340 participants with diabetes or pre-diabetes, with a mean TyG index of 9.02 ± 0.02. The overall average prevalence of CVD was 10.38%. Participants in the higher TyG quartiles showed high rates of CVD (Quartile 1: 7.35%; Quartile 2: 10.04%; Quartile 3: 10.71%; Quartile 4: 13.65%). For CVD, a possible association between the TyG index and the risk of CVD was observed. Our findings suggested a linear association between the TyG index and the risk of CVD. The results revealed a U-shaped relationship between the TyG index and both the risk of CVD (P nonlinear = 0.02583) and CHF (P nonlinear = 0.0208) in individuals with diabetes. Subgroup analysis and the interaction term indicated that there was no significant difference among different stratifications. Our study also revealed a positive association between the TyG index and comorbid MetS in the U.S. population under 65 years of age with prediabetes or diabetes. Conclusions A higher TyG index was linked to an increased likelihood of CVD in the U.S. population aged ≤ 65 years with prediabetes and diabetes. Besides, TyG index assessment will contribute to more convenient and effective screening of high-risk individuals in patients with MetS. Future studies should explore whether interventions targeting the TyG index may improve clinical outcomes in these patients.