18FFDG-PET/CT-based risk stratification in women with locally advanced uterine cervical cancer

Abstract Background 18 FFDG-PET/CT is used for staging and treatment planning in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC). We studied if a PET-based prediction model could provide additional risk stratification beyond International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging in our population with LACC to aid treatment decision making. Methods In total, 183 patients with LACC treated with chemoradiation between 2013 and 2018 were included. Patients were treated according to FIGO 2009 and retrospectively reclassified according to FIGO 2018 staging system. After validation of an existing PET-based prediction model, the predicted recurrent free survival (RFS), disease specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) at 1, 3, and 5 years, based on metabolic tumor volume (MTV), maximum standardized uptake value (SUV max ) and highest level of 18 FFDG-positive node was calculated. Then the observed survival was compared to the predicted survival. An area under the curve (AUC) close to or higher than 0.7 was considered adequate for accurate prediction. The Youden (J) index defined survival chance cutoff values for low and high risk groups. Results All AUC values for the comparison between predicted and observed outcomes were > 0.7 except for 5-year RFS and for 5-year OS which were close to 0.7 (0.684 and 0.650 respectively). Cutoff values for low and high risk survival chance were 0.44 for the 3-year RFS and 0.47 for the 5-year OS. The FIGO 2009 system could not differentiate between the risk profiles. After reclassification according to FIGO 2018, all patients with stage IIIC2 and IVB fell in the high risk and almost all patients with stages IB2-IIIB and IVA in the low risk group. In patients with stage IIIC1 disease the FIGO stage cannot discriminate between the risk profiles. Conclusions Low and high risk patients with LACC can be identified with the PET-based prediction model. In particular patients with stage IIIC1 need additional risk stratification besides the FIGO 2018 staging. The Kidd model could be a useful tool to aid treatment decision making in these patients. Our results also support the choice of 18 FFDG-PET/CT imaging in patients with LACC.