Insights from 30 Years of Land Use/Land Cover Transitions in Jakarta, Indonesia, via Intensity Analysis

Here, we assess land use/land cover (LULC) transitions over the last 30 years in Jakarta, Indonesia. Land cover maps were prepared for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 using seven categories of Landsat satellite image: bare land, built-up, cropland, green area, mangrove, water body, and pond. LULC changes were assessed through intensity analyses at the interval and transition levels. LULC changes were initially rapid (1990–1995) and then more gradual (1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2010). Unlike in previous intervals, annual changes were uniformly distributed over time in 2010–2015 and 2015–2020. Driven by high population and economic growth, built-up land was identified as an active gainer in all intervals except 2010–2015. Alongside built-up areas, cropland was the main supplier of other categories, including bare land, pond, built-up, and green areas. The largest transition area occurred in pond and green areas during 2005–2010 and in built-up land during 2015–2020. High demand for built-up land was observed in land changes driven by high population growth triggered by economic necessity. Economic and population growth exhibited a positive correlation (R2 = 0.78, t = 9.996). This study elucidates spatiotemporal LULC transition patterns over 30 years in a rapidly growing city.