Iraq’s Sunnis and Kurds face a more peripheral future

Significance Discussions on the future of the US-Iraq security relationship will be followed with intense interest by both Iran-backed Shia forces in Iraq and their increasingly sidelined Sunni and Kurdish rivals. The largest Sunni and Kurdish parties have long relied on Washington’s balancing role to retain a degree of political independence. Impacts US interest in Iraq will likely decline as the troop presence is reduced in 2025. Future Kurdish and Sunni influence will depend on their internal unity, bilateral cooperation and search for international backing. Current over-spending of oil revenue on salaries for political purposes means Iraq faces a medium-term fiscal crunch.