Higher ground or into harm's way? Household storm surge sheltering and evacuation plans

Storm surge poses a significant threat to property, livelihoods, and life for coastal populations. The Philippines is expected to see the highest rise in storm surge exposure of any country over the next century under climate change, requiring robust knowledge of how current risk and evacuation intensions for households intersect. Drawing on a survey of 12,150 households in the Municipality of Carigara, we compare building-level storm surge risk between the primary place of resident and intended evacuation locations. Our results compare how risk differs for households that plan to evacuate to public centres, residences of family and friends, and those who intend to shelter-in-place. We found that 28% of households planned to evacuate to private residences, 12% planned to evacuate to public evacuation shelters, 48% planned to shelter-in-place, and 11% who recognised a need to evacuate but were unsure where they would go. While we find a positive association between a storm surge risk and plans to evacuation, under the highest storm surge advisory (SSA4), we find that 30% of evacuations to private residences and 61% of evacuations to public centres are to locations at higher risk than evacuee's primary place of residence. Our study problematises the assumption that evacuation will lead to higher safety, contributing new knowledge of intended evacuation plans under storm surge advisories in the Philippines and highlighting a need for continued public awareness of not only hazard zones, but also the vulnerability of evacuation structures.