Seasonal dynamics of water and sediment in the permafrost basin of the Qinghai‐Tibet plateau and its driving factors

Abstract Climate change has regulated cryosphere‐fed rivers and altered interannual and seasonal sediment dynamics, with significant implications for terrestrial material cycles and downstream aquatic ecosystems. However, there has been a notable scarcity of research focusing on the patterns of water–sediment transport within these permafrost zones. Integrating 6 years (2017–2022) of in‐situ observational data from FengHuoShan basin with the partial least squares‐structural equation modelling (PLS‐SEM) method, we analyse the driving factors, characteristics and seasonal patterns of the water–sediment transport process. We observed a gradual increase in both suspended sediment flux (SSF, Mt/yr) and runoff ( Q , km 3 /yr) within the basin, with annual growth rates of 1.34%/yr and 0.75%/yr, respectively. It is worth noting that these growth rates exhibit seasonal variations, with the highest values observed in spring (SSF: 1.76%/yr, Q : 1.71%/yr). This indicates that the response to climate change is more pronounced in spring compared with summer and autumn. Through mathematical statistics and the PLS‐SEM model, we found that temperature plays a predominant role in the dynamics of water–sediment in both spring and autumn, whereas rainfall exerts a more significant impact during the summer. Most suspended sediment concentration (SSC, kg/m 3 ) peak events throughout the year are primarily driven by rainfall. Affected by the freeze–thaw cycle of permafrost, SSC and discharge ( Q , m 3 /s) exhibit distinct seasonality. SSC and Q demonstrate a clockwise trend; both Q and SSC begin to increase from May and peak in August before declining. The insights gleaned from this study hold significant implications for water resource management and soil conservation strategies in the region, particularly in the face of ongoing climatic changes characterized by warming and increased humidity.