Simulation of Transfer Probability in the City Route Network: Case Study of Lviv, Ukraine

The correct organization of transfers in the public transport system allows to reduce the congestion of the route network while maintaining a sufficient level of service quality for users of transport services. When modelling the probability of transfer, it is advisable to separate the probability of a public transport user choosing a trip with a transfer and the probability of making a transfer at a certain stop of the public transport system. The first probability largely depends on the socio-economic characteristics of the passenger and the time parameters of the trip. The probability of transfer at a certain stop is affected by the information provision of the stop and the number of routes. The general configuration of the route network determines the "basic need for a transfer in the network" - the ratio of the number of pairs of transport zones between which there is no direct public transport route to the total number of pairs of transport zones. The simulation carried out in the PTV Visum software environment for Lviv city made it possible to assess the impact of the tariff system on the change in the number of transfers and to determine critical stops and routes of the network. The inclusion of data on the structure of the city's population in the model makes it possible to use mathematical functions of the probability of transfer on the socio-economic characteristics of the passenger (age, gender, income level) when calculating the forecast number of transfers on the network.