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This study addresses a significant gap by investigating the environmental impacts of Germany's pioneering energy transition ("Energiewende") over 1973–2022. Motivated by the need to inform global low-carbon policymaking through empirical evidence, it leverages robust econometric techniques to evaluate the ecological outcomes of this national strategy spanning five decades. By utilizing the Load Capacity Factor (LCF) metric encompassing both resource demand and ecosystem replenishment capacity dynamics, the analysis offers a nuanced assessment of income-energy-environment interlinkages during this transition. It examines the impacts of nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable energy consumption on Germany's LCF amidst the Energiewende's structural changes. While the U-shaped income-ecology relationship posited under the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis is invalidated over the period. However, renewables exhibit positive environmental effects, increasing Germany's LCF 0.03% and validating their role for sustainable transitions. In contrast, fossil fuels substantially reduce LCF, underscoring the need for restrictions. Nuclear's negligible impact suggests its gradual phase-out is feasible. Thus, evidence strongly advocates expanding renewables and limiting fossil fuel use to progress Germany's decarbonization objectives. Although contextual factors constrain generalizability, insights from the complex transitions underway in industrial economies like Germany remain vital for global policymaking. As nations craft balanced strategies to align economic, energy and environmental priorities, this timely analysis illuminates viable pathways.
Chun‐Chih Chen (Tue,) studied this question.