Assessing European supply chain configurations for sustainable e-polyethylene production from sustainable CO2 and renewable electricity

While the European Union has set ambitious targets to decouple all emissions from chemical production processes, the current European chemical industry is dependent on fossil fuels for energy use and as feedstocks. The import of products across the chemical supply chain is a critical component of the European chemical industry, and a transition to a power-to-chemicals structure provides an opportunity to locally supply chemical feedstocks. This study develops a techno-economic model to examine the supply chain options and applies a life-cycle analysis to assess the climate impacts for electricity-based polyethylene (e-polyethylene), the most produced ethylene derivative and chemical, for four European regions of Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, Spain, and Finland under seven polyethylene supply chain configurations compared to local production. A hydrogen cost of 27 €/MWh in 2050 is found to lead to ethylene costs similar to those in Europe today, at 631 €/t. By 2050, local e-polyethylene production costs in Europe range from 712–1406 €/t. Imports of electricity-based methanol and e-polyethylene lead to levelised costs ranging from 56–118% and 42–108% of locally produced e-polyethylene by 2050, respectively, whereas hydrogen imports lead to 119–235% of local e-polyethylene production costs. Cradle-to-gate life-cycle results find that fully local e-polyethylene production has 15–61% lower greenhouse gas emissions than fossil polyethylene production. However, if the carbon content of the plastic is considered, negative carbon footprints can be achieved. The availability of low-cost electricity-based chemicals in southern Europe and North Africa and limited land availability in central Europe may therefore drive critical European investments to develop economically competitive power-to-chemical supply chains.