Identification of group differences in predictive anticipatory biasing of pain during uncertainty: preparing for the worst but hoping for the best

Abstract Pain anticipation during conditions of uncertainty can unveil intrinsic biases, and understanding these biases can guide pain treatment interventions. This study used machine learning and functional magnetic resonance imaging to predict anticipatory responses in a pain anticipation experiment. One hundred forty-seven participants that included healthy controls (n = 57) and individuals with current and/or past mental health diagnosis (n = 90) received cues indicating upcoming pain stimuli: 2 cues predicted high and low temperatures, while a third cue introduced uncertainty. Accurate differentiation of neural patterns associated with specific anticipatory conditions was observed, involving activation in the anterior short gyrus of the insula and the nucleus accumbens. Three distinct response profiles emerged: subjects with a negative bias towards high pain anticipation, those with a positive bias towards low pain anticipation, and individuals whose predictions during uncertainty were unbiased. These profiles remained stable over one year, were consistent across diagnosed psychopathologies, and correlated with cognitive coping styles and underlying insula anatomy. The findings suggest that individualized and stable pain anticipation occurs in uncertain conditions.