Determinants and their spatial heterogeneity of carbon emissions in resource-based cities, China

Abstract Global climate change associated with increased carbon emissions has become a global concern. Resource-based cities, by estimations, have emerged as major contributors to carbon emissions, accounting for approximately one-third of the national total. This underscores their pivotal role in the pursuit of carbon neutrality goals. Despite this, resource-based cities have long been neglected in current climate change mitigation policy discussions. Accordingly, using exploratory spatial data analysis and Geographical Weighted Regression method, this study investigates the determinants of carbon emissions and their spatial pattern in 113 resource-based cities in China. It can be concluded that: (1) The proportion of carbon emissions from resource-based cities in the national total has shown a marginal increase between 2003 and 2017, and the emissions from these cities have not yet reached their peak. (2) A relatively stable spatial pattern of “northeast high, southwest low” characterizes carbon emissions in resource-based cities, displaying significant spatial autocorrelation. (3) Population size, economic development level, carbon abatement technology, and the proportion of resource-based industries all contribute to the increase in carbon emissions in these cities, with carbon abatement technology playing a predominant role. (4) There is a spatial variation in the strength of the effects of the various influences.