Change in the distribution of heavy 1h precipitation due to temperature changes in measured values, model reanalyses and model simulations of future climate

This contribution focuses on the change in 1h heavy precipitation distribution in response to the increasing air temperature in Czechia (Central Europe). The air temperature, the dew point temperature and the temperature of lifting condensation level are used as temperature characteristics. The change in the distribution of 1h precipitation measurements is compared with the results of reanalyses based on simulations of ALADIN-CZ NWP model and with the results of future climate simulations by ALADIN-CLIMAT-CZ climate model. In general, the increase in heavy precipitation appears clearly in the very upper part of precipitation distribution. Values of the upper percentiles of precipitation increase up to a certain temperature threshold and then they decrease, which is in line with other studies. This is also visible in the simulations of future climate.