Impacts of winter warming events on spruce budworm: the importance of timing

Abstract Winter climate change constitutes not only a shift in chronic conditions (i.e., shorter length and warmer average temperatures) but will also influence the dynamics of extreme warming events. The latter may be particularly important for the performance and survival of insects, given their susceptibility to temperature variation. However, metabolic sensitivity changes over the course of winter diapause, and thus, insect responses to warming may vary depending on when the event occurs. To determine the influence of warm-up timing, we exposed the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana ((Clem.), Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), to acute warming events in early-, mid-, and late-dormancy and measured impacts on survival, performance, and biochemistry. While we did not observe any impacts of warm-up timing on performance, survival to the adult stage was significantly reduced in response to earlier warming. Additionally, glycogen concentration was significantly higher in response to early and late warming exposure. Collectively, these results suggest that the timing of extreme winter warming events matters, with consequences for both lethal and sublethal responses.