Optimization of the structure of the manufacturing industry of Ukraine according to the criteria of increasing the technology level of manufacturing operations and reducing their import dependence

Abstract The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine's economy should be based on new development priorities. First of all, we are talking about the structural transformation of the manufacturing industry, as a key segment of the economy, in the direction of increasing the weight of manufacturing operations with higher added value, socio-economic efficiency, the functioning of which will ensure the restoration of intersectoral relations, the reduction of import dependence, the improvement of the technical defence capability of the country and the social standards of life of the population. The purpose of the article is to optimize the structure of output and the structure of gross added value (GVA) of the manufacturing industry of Ukraine and the structure of intermediate consumption (in terms of domestic and imported components) of manufacturing operations. On the basis of the study of the relationships between the indicators of the economic efficiency of the Ukrainian manufacturing industry and the technological structure of its production (across 16 manufacturing operations), it was established that during the years 2013-2021, under the influence of non-economic factors, there was a significant decrease in the share of medium-high-tech industries (primarily chemical and machine-building) in the output of industry with a simultaneous decrease in the share of GVA in the output of these industries. On the basis of the obtained analytical information, using the author's methodical tools and the experience of previous studies, the optimization of the structure of output and GVA of the Ukrainian manufacturing industry was carried out according to the criterion of increasing the technology level. The objective function of such optimization was chosen to increase the efficiency of the manufacturing industry of Ukraine (expressed as an indicator of the share of GVA in output) to the level of Poland. According to the results of a detailed correlation analysis of the relationships between the values of indicators of import dependence and the economic efficiency of Ukrainian manufacturing operations, a number of negative features of the functioning of the latter were revealed, in particular: the deepening of import dependence of basic and strategic segments of industry, the increase in the volume of production of products based on give-and-take raw materials, etc. Based on the criterion of reducing import dependence of all manufacturing operations, but above all medium-high-tech ones, such a structure of intermediate consumption (in terms of imported and domestic components of costs) of manufacturing is modelled, under which the indicator of the share of GVA in the output of the manufacturing industry of Ukraine will correspond to the level of Poland. The modelling results form a scientific basis for strategic planning and forecasting the development of the manufacturing sector of the national economy. Prospective author's research in this direction will be aimed at the development of models for optimizing the structure of Ukrainian industry according to the criteria of increasing the innovativeness of industrial products and ensuring the socio-economic development of the country in the period of post-war recovery. Keywords industry, production, technology level, output, gross added value, efficiency, import dependence, intermediate consumption, optimization