In Dire Straits: The Baltic States between Mainland China and Taiwan

Abstract: Since 2020, the Baltic states have distanced themselves from mainland China. However, one country—Lithuania—has also developed close ties with Taiwan, including the opening of the Taiwanese Representative Office, the first in the European Union (EU). In response, China has downgraded diplomatic relations with Lithuania and imposed unofficial but sweeping economic sanctions. Why would a small Baltic country challenge a great power in Asia, where it has no obvious interests? Drawing on theories of international relations and based on original research, I argue that there are three reasons for Lithuania's seemingly irrational behavior. First, the Baltic states depend on the United States for protection against Russia. However, Lithuania lacks a useful niche, such as cybersecurity for Estonia and logistics for Lat-via. As a substitute, it has sided with the United States in the conflict with China. Second, the Baltic region has benefited little from economic cooperation with China. Therefore, Lithuania leaped at Taiwan's promise of US1. 2 billion in investments and credits for high-tech industries. Third, Lithuania is the only Baltic country with a long history of independent statehood. As a result, it supports other peoples who seek to decide their own fate and—not always consistently—believes it should spread its values "from Belarus to Taiwan. "