Estimating Runway Overrun Risks of Landing Aircraft

This paper presents a procedure to estimate runway overrun risks of landing aircraft under different combinations of operating factors, including aircraft landing weight, landing speed, landing location, pavement skid resistance, and runway length. The procedure consists of two main parts: determination of braking distance, and calculation of overrun risk. A significant contribution is the determination of available skid resistance as a function of aircraft speed and pavement conditions in the calculation of braking distance. Any aircraft type as well as dimensions of pavement grooves, if present, can be considered. The impacts of low skid resistance on overrun risk, owing to either wet weather conditions, traffic polishing effect on pavement surface texture, or changes of groove dimensions caused by contamination or load-induced deformation, are considered. A demonstrative example is presented to (1) calculate the braking distances of a B777 aircraft for different landing weights, landing speeds, pavement groove dimensions, and pavement skid resistance states; and (2) determine the corresponding overrun risks as a function of aircraft landing speed, landing location, and available runway length. Compared with existing overrun risk prediction methods, the proposed method is unique in that it deterministically considers airport- and runway-related factors in the overrun risk calculation, and it does not require any historical incident and accident data. It estimates aircraft-specific overrun risk for the specific runway analyzed under actual runway operating conditions.