Radiomics-Based Prediction of Collateral Status from CT Angiography of Patients Following a Large Vessel Occlusion Stroke

Background: A major driver of individual variation in long-term outcomes following a large vessel occlusion (LVO) stroke is the degree of collateral arterial circulation. We aimed to develop and evaluate machine-learning models that quantify LVO collateral status using admission computed tomography angiography (CTA) radiomics. Methods: We extracted 1116 radiomic features from the anterior circulation territories from admission CTAs of 600 patients experiencing an acute LVO stroke. We trained and validated multiple machine-learning models for the prediction of collateral status based on consensus from two neuroradiologists as ground truth. Models were first trained to predict (1) good vs. intermediate or poor, or (2) good vs. intermediate or poor collateral status. Then, model predictions were combined to determine a three-tier collateral score (good, intermediate, or poor). We used the receiver operating characteristics area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate prediction accuracy. Results: We included 499 patients in training and 101 in an independent test cohort. The best-performing models achieved an averaged cross-validation AUC of 0.80 ± 0.05 for poor vs. intermediate/good collateral and 0.69 ± 0.05 for good vs. intermediate/poor, and AUC = 0.77 (0.67–0.87) and AUC = 0.78 (0.70–0.90) in the independent test cohort, respectively. The collateral scores predicted by the radiomics model were correlated with (rho = 0.45, p = 0.002) and were independent predictors of 3-month clinical outcome (p = 0.018) in the independent test cohort. Conclusions: Automated tools for the assessment of collateral status from admission CTA—such as the radiomics models described here—can generate clinically relevant and reproducible collateral scores to facilitate a timely treatment triage in patients experiencing an acute LVO stroke.