Aligning agri-environmental-climate public good supply and desire in a sustainable Dutch agricultural sector

Abstract European agricultural policies increasingly incorporate mechanisms for delivery of public goods. Sustainable public good delivery requires alignment between societal demand and landscape supply. However, the variation of demands or desires regarding future public good delivery among society is hardly known. We inventoried the desires for public goods across Dutch society, and projections of agricultural supply. A multi-method approach was used to find agreement levels between desired and expected change in good delivery. Most stakeholders expressed a desire for biodiversity and climate regulation from agriculture, whilst desire for natural heritage and recreation was less common. The utility of a public good to a stakeholder appears to influence its desire. Scenarios for agriculture focus on extensification, sustainable intensification, regionalization, or meadow bird conservation. Regionalized scenarios showed the highest agreement between public good supply and desire. Maximizing alignment between desire and supply thus requires a challenging transition towards region-specific agricultural sustainability strategies.