Digitalisation Impact on E-Commerce in Kazakhstan: Macroeconomic Effects and Forecast

Today, digital transformation has a significant impact on the structure of trade, consumer behaviour and macroeconomic indicators, especially in developing countries. This study aims to assess the impact of digitalisation on the development of electronic commerce in Kazakhstan and its relationship with macroeconomic indicators, as well as to predict the dynamics of e-commerce using regression and time analysis. The official statistical data of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the National Bank, as well as international organisations (the World Bank, ITU) were used as source data. The research methodology includes descriptive statistics, correlation and multiple regression analysis in SPSS, as well as forecasting the volume of electronic commerce using the ARIMA. The results showed a high correlation between the volume of e-commerce and the level of Internet penetration (r = 0.83), the number of users (r = 0.85), as well as the volume of cross-border trade (r = 0.95). Multiple regression showed that e-commerce in the service sector (β = 0.707, p < 0.001) and the share of e-commerce in the retail structure (β = 0.347, p = 0.003) had the most significant impact. The results of the study emphasise the need to review the marketing strategies of enterprises, develop digital infrastructure and improve government policy in the field of cross-border electronic commerce. In future work, it is advisable to use microdata to include behavioural factors, as well as expand time series and apply nonlinear models, including structural shifts, to analyse the impact of digitalisation on trade more accurately.