Abstract This study applies the Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to analyze mangrove degradation in Pondok Bali, North Coast of Java, Indonesia. Using the SES framework, the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) and systems thinking tools, notably Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs), the study unravels historical changes in coastline morphology, mangrove coverage, and community livelihoods. Satellite imagery analysis (MNDWI, NDVI) and fieldwork confirm a dramatic retreat of up to 2.36 km and significant mangrove area loss since 1992. Key drivers include land use change, unregulated aquaculture, river diversion, land subsidence, and sea level rise. Recent adaptive measures, such as wave-breaking devices and community planting show promise, public support remains mixed. The findings underscore the need for a coordinated national and regional master plan with defined stakeholder roles and sustainable financing. The study highlights that successful restoration requires integrated engineering-ecological solutions, supported by blended finance and guided by SES-informed planning.
Suroso et al. (Tue,) studied this question.