Abstract Future climate change is expected to have serious effects on crop production in northern Shanxi province, China. However, systematic research on the effects of future climate change on the productivity and economic returns of cropping systems is limited. Based on field observations, this study validated the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) and conducted long‐term scenario simulations in northern Shanxi to assess the productivity/economic return of several common cropping systems in six clusters divided by climate conditions. Results indicated the following: (1) The APSIM validation during 2022–2023 presented generally acceptable results, with normalized root mean square error of 6.4%–28.8% and Willmott agreement index of 0.800–0.978 in simulating yield and biomass. (2) Future projections offered higher yields, economic returns, higher rate of actual yield accounting for potential value (RAY), and higher rate of actual economic return accounting for potential value (RAE). (3) The RAY was higher in food crops (87.7%–99.9%) than in forages (61.3%–87.1%), while the rotations with maize ( Zea mays L.) produced lower actual yield and RAY. (4) The highest actual economic returns were observed in continuous maize (34.15–45.23 × 10 3 RMB 2‐year −1 ), whereas crop–forage rotations were predicted to show lower RAE. (5) High precipitation condition primarily resulted in high actual yield/economic return, while low temperature and radiation were important factors enhancing potential values. Generally, crop–forage rotations were mostly recommended in clusters with at least moderate precipitation, whereas maize and potato ( Solanum tuberosum L.)‐based systems were expected to thrive under high‐ and low‐precipitation conditions, respectively.
Yang et al. (Sat,) studied this question.