Abstract Introduction The European Leukemia Net (ELN) 2022 stratified acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients (pts) treated with intensive chemotherapy (IC) into three groups based on genetic features. ELN 2024 (Döhner et al, Blood) and Beat AML 2024 (Hoff et al, Blood Advances) proposed revised systems to better capture the impact of genetic features in pts receiving less-intensive therapy (LIT). Real-world validation across treatment settings, including allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT), is warranted. Methods We evaluated the performance of ELN 2022, ELN 2024, and Beat AML 2024 among AML pts treated at Mayo Clinic from 2016 to 2025. Only treated pts with available molecular data included. Response was assessed according to the ELN 2022 criteria. Overall survival (OS) was calculated from diagnosis. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard (CPH) models were used to adjust for covariates. Model performances were assessed using Harrell's c-index. Results 426 AML pts (median age 68 years; 60% male) were included; 195 (46%) received IC and 231 (54%) received LIT, while Allo-HCT was performed in 133 (31%) pts. Complex karyotype was present in 126 (30%) and normal cytogenetics in 143 (34%) pts. Molecular mutations included TP53 (20%), TET2 (18%), DNMT3A (16%), SRSF2 (16%), RUNX1 (16%), ASXL1 (16%), and NPM1 (15%). Among evaluable pts (83%), complete remission (CR) after first-line therapy was achieved in 47%. Risk group assignments varied: ELN 2022 vs. ELN 2024 classified pts as favorable (20% vs. 55%), intermediate (20% vs. 24%), and adverse (60% vs. 20%); Beat AML 2024 categorized pts as favorable (41%), intermediate (21%), and adverse (38%). ELN 2024 reclassified 229 (54%) pts of whom 5% upstaged and 49% downstaged, primarily affecting ELN 2022 adverse (67%) and intermediate (46%) groups. Among LIT-treated, CR rates did not differ across groups in any classification. Per ELN 2024, CR was achieved in 43% (favorable), 67% (intermediate), and 29% (adverse) of the LIT-treated pts. However, among IC-treated pts, CR was higher in favorable/intermediate vs. adverse groups across all models (p0.0001). Allo-HCT was most common in ELN 2024 intermediate (41%) and favorable (32%) vs. adverse (16%) groups. Median OS (months; 95% CI) for the entire cohort was 15.7 (12.5–20.9) with median follow-up time of 49.8 (40.9-55). By ELN 2022, OS of the entire cohort was 49.4 (30.7–NA) for favorable, 50.0 (29.2–NA) for intermediate, and 8.8 (7.7–11.2) for adverse (p0.0001). Per ELN 2024, OS of the entire cohort was 25.4 (18.5–37.3), 20.3 (13.4–39.8), and 5.7 (3.4–8.2), respectively (p0.0001). Beat AML 2024 stratified OS of the entire cohort as 42.5 (30.7–NA), 11.4 (9.3–16.7), and 5.6 (3.5–8.0) for favorable, intermediate, and adverse groups (p0.0001). ELN 2024 stratified the OS of the pts treated with LIT as 15.7 (10.1-24.9), 8.0 (4.9-13.9), and 6.8 (3.4-10.2) for favorable, intermediate and adverse risk groups, (p 0.0001). Among ELN 2022 adverse-risk pts, those reclassified as favorable per ELN 2024 had superior OS (15.0, 9.8–22.7) compared to intermediate (7.8, 5.0–9.3) or adverse (5.4, 3.3–8.0) risk groups, p0.0001. C-index (95% CI) for OS in the entire cohort was highest for Beat AML 2024 (0.658, 0.629–0.688), followed by ELN 2022 (0.627, 0.599–0.655), and ELN 2024 (0.600, 0.568–0.631). In LIT-treated pts, ELN 2024 (0.597, 0.558–0.637) and Beat AML 2024 (0.586, 0.545–0.627) outperformed ELN 2022 (0.559, 0.521–0.596). Among allo-HCT pts, regardless of treatment type, ELN 2022 (0.610, 0.539–0.681) performed better than ELN 2024 (0.568, 0.487–0.648). In multivariable CPH models adjusted for age, bone marrow blasts, treatment intensity, and complex karyotype, ELN 2022 and ELN 2024 adverse-risk groups had higher hazard of death (HR 2.4, 1.6–3.5 and HR 1.7, 1.1–2.5, respectively, vs. favorable). No significant difference was observed between intermediate and favorable risk for ELN 2022 (HR 1.4, 0.9–2.2) or ELN 2024 (HR 1.4, 0.9–1.9). Allo-HCT was associated with a lower hazard of death (HR 0.4, 0.3–0.5). Conclusions In this real-world AML cohort, ELN 2024 and Beat AML 2024 improved OS prediction in LIT-treated pts compared to ELN 2022. This advantage was not observed in allo-HCT pts. Multivariable analysis confirmed the adverse-risk group as having the worst prognosis across all models. These findings highlight the importance of aligning molecular risk stratification with treatment modalities to enhance prognostication in AML.
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