Unpredictable work schedule changes and occupational accidents: A comparative analysis of Korean and European working conditions surveys

ABSTRACT Objective To examine whether unpredictable work schedule changes are associated with occupational accidents, comparing South Korea and the European Union. Methods This cross-sectional study used data from the 2017 Korean Working Conditions Survey and 2015 European Working Conditions Survey, focusing on blue-collar wage workers aged 18–64 years. Weighted logistic regression was applied, adjusting for confounders. Results In Korea, unpredictable schedule changes significantly increased accident risk (adjusted odds ratio OR = 2.733; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.859–4.018), with stronger effects among shift workers. In Europe, associations were weaker and nonsignificant (adjusted OR = 1.142; 95% CI: 0.811–1.610). A dose–response trend by notification timing was observed in Korea but not Europe. Conclusions Schedule predictability is an independent occupational safety factor, underscoring the need for organizational and policy measures, particularly in vulnerable work settings.