Structural shifts and the adaptive potential of Russian regions in the context of external shocks

The subject of the study is the structural shifts and adaptive potential of Russia's regional economies during the period of 2018–2023. The object of the study is twelve representative regions of the Russian Federation representing different economic models. The authors examine in detail such aspects of the topic as changes in the regional sectoral specialization under the influence of external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions pressure. Special attention is paid to analyzing the dynamics of economic concentration at the regional level and identifying successful adaptation strategies. The researchers describe the processes of economic diversification in some regions and the strengthening of raw materials dependence in others. They also analyze in detail cases of risky hyper-specialization and structural stagnation. The paper presents an original typology of regions based on the nature of their structural transformations, which allows for predicting their resilience to external challenges. The practical significance of the study lies in the development of recommendations for a differentiated regional policy aimed at increasing the adaptive potential of the economies of the Russian Federation's constituent entities in conditions of instability. The calculation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) as a key tool for assessing the level of diversification of regional economies was used as a methodological basis. The paper analyzes various approaches to measuring economic concentration and justifies the choice of HHI for monitoring structural changes. The results revealed four types of adaptation trajectories. The first group demonstrates successful diversification with a 33.4–53.2% decrease in HHI due to the redistribution of resources to the manufacturing and IT sectors. The second group is characterized by structural stagnation with hyper-concentration on the extractive sector. The third group shows moderate transformation, while the fourth group exhibits risky hyper-specialization with an increase in HHI up to 146.2%. For each group, key factors have been identified that contributed to the chosen development trajectory, including investment activity, government support, and institutional conditions. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a comprehensive typology of regions based on the nature of structural shifts. The practical significance lies in creating a basis for differentiated regional policies aimed at increasing resilience to external challenges through targeted promotion of diversification. The findings allow for assessing the effectiveness of adaptation strategies and formulating recommendations for public authorities to develop the competitiveness of regional economies in unstable conditions.