Victory or frozen conflict? Assessing the feasibility of Ukraine’s victory-oriented strategy to conflict termination

Abstract Can Ukraine avoid a frozen conflict with Russia, and could it have done so with more Western aid and victory in the war? Drawing on the Klosek et al. (2021) dataset of frozen conflicts, the paper outlines five criteria that are necessary to bring a frozen conflict to a military end. Two counterfactual scenarios explore whether increased or accelerated Western aid could have enabled Ukraine to meet these criteria. The analysis concludes that even with substantial Western assistance, Ukraine was unlikely to achieve the kind of victory needed to compel Russia to accept defeat and address the core issues. Ukraine’s victory-oriented approach was implausible not due to a lack of Western weapons, but because it failed to resolve entrenched political issues and lacked structural military advantages. The findings suggest that policy should emphasize diplomacy, while scholarship should explore why this unfeasible approach received strong backing.