Tracing inequitable emissions in global trade using a networks approach

Abstract Do patterns of international trade align with the distribution of emissions embodied in trade? In this paper, we use methods from network science to present a descriptive analysis of the alignment between bilateral international trade and the emissions embodied in the trade flows across countries and sectors between 1995 and 2020. By constructing and comparing weighted trade and emissions networks over this period, we quantify the dissimilarities between economic value and environmental cost. We provide insights into how this dissimilarity varies across key economic sectors and over time. Beyond documenting this imbalance, we explore the structural properties of the trade and emissions networks, revealing contrasting patterns of assortativity and ‘rich-club’ formation. Specifically, we find that trade flows exhibit a persistent concentration among developed nations. This is notably absent in emissions, where environmental burdens are more diffused across countries. We introduce a simple measure of ‘inequity’ both at the local and global level, based on the disproportionate emissions intensity of trade flows. Our findings show that these inequities are not randomly distributed but are strongly patterned by income: lower-income countries are consistently found to be emission-intensive exporters to wealthier economies. This partition, persistent across time and sectors, highlights a fundamental asymmetry in the environmental costs of global trade.