D4.3 Optimal selection of available flexibility (v1)

This deliverable presents the progress made in the first phase of the innovation “Optimal Selection of Available Flexibility”, which consists of two key aspects: identifying market suitability of flexibility assets and developing an algorithm to assist aggregators in selecting which assets to activate. The initial phase established the foundation for both aspects by leveraging data from two fleets—EV charging stations and HEMS devices—to perform analyses and develop advanced baseline forecasting models. These models will be further utilized in the second phase to determine the optimal flexibility utilization options and serve as inputs for testing the optimal selection algorithm. The document details the methodology used in this phase, including the integration of the two fleets into the KOL aggregation platform and an overview of the selected forecasting techniques. It also presents the process and results of baseline forecasting, which was conducted using different approaches: aggregated fleet-level and individual location forecasting for EVs, and a householdlevel approach for HEMS assets. Building upon these forecasts, the flexibility modelling process for different assets is explained, outlining how flexibility potential is quantified. Additionally, the deliverable explores various flexibility utilization options from a theoretical perspective, preparing the groundwork for the next phase where EV and HEMS fleet data and forecasting models will be used to assess their viability. The insights and methodologies presented in this deliverable will serve as key inputs for the next stage, where both aspects of optimal selection will be demonstrated. This structured approach ensures that the findings in the next version of the deliverable are grounded in real-world data from both fleets, providing tangible results.