This study quantifies post-demolition External Thermal Insulation Composite Systems (ETICS), with a focus on Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) as insulation material in Germany. Using a top-down approach, it estimates mass distribution at the NUTS-3 level and predicts future EPS waste volumes. Residential and non-residential buildings are categorized by type and construction age, with insulation rates determined through database queries. Waste projections incorporate ETICS lifetimes survey data, and probabilistic single-house sampling. Findings indicate a fourfold increase in annual EPS waste from ETICS by 2050, with 80% originating from residential buildings and 20% from non-residential structures, predominantly in urban areas. ETICS pose recycling challenges due to their composite nature, combining organic and inorganic materials, and the presence of HBCD, a toxic flame retardant banned by the EU in 2015. Currently, most ETICS waste is incinerated, a linear approach that fails to address the anticipated surge in waste volumes. Given these projections, sustainable alternatives for ETICS waste management are urgently needed. The study provides insights into waste distribution across building types and administrative regions, offering a basis for informed policy decisions. The building typology used in this approach is available for other European countries, supporting the development of comprehensive waste management strategies across Europe.
Bischof et al. (Wed,) studied this question.