Limits of QAOA Depth Scaling on IBM Quantum Hardware for Fault Tree QUBOs

The Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is a leading candidate for near-term quantum advantage in combinatorial optimization. A central design parameter is circuit depth p, with theoretical analyses establishing asymptotic convergence under idealized conditions. This paper presents a limits study demonstrating that this theoretical relationship does not translate to measurable improvement on current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) hardware for fault tree analysis applications. Across 120 QAOA executions on 60 QUBO-encoded fault tree instances (N ∈ 12, 16, 20, 24, 28, 32) on IBM Quantum hardware (ibmₜorino, 133-qubit Heron processor), circuit depths p = 1 and p = 2 were directly compared. The mean change in optimal state sampling probability from doubling circuit depth was Δmaxₚrob = 1. 22 × 10⁻⁵ with a median Δ of zero. For 8, 192 shots, the binomial sampling uncertainty is O (10⁻²) ; the observed mean delta is therefore approximately three orders of magnitude below the shot-noise scale, making the difference statistically indistinguishable from zero. Output distribution entropy approaches the theoretical maximum of log₂ (8192) ≈ 13 bits, indicating hardware noise dominates algorithmic signal. These findings establish that for fault tree minimal cut set identification on current NISQ devices, computational resources are more effectively allocated to increased shot counts than to circuit depth. Complete experimental artifacts with SHA-256 verification are provided, enabling full reproducibility.