This record contains the preprint for the paper "Projecting subnational fertility for Great Britain using Bayesian generalised additive models" by Joanne Ellison, Jason Hilton, Jakub Bijak, Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J, Forster and Peter W.F. Smith. It also contains the complete replication code, together with the required input data and instructions. Only a small amount of additional data needs to be downloaded from the Human Fertility Database, since this source does not allow redistribution. This work was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council Centre for Population Change Connecting Generations Centre (grant ES/W002116/1). Earlier versions of this work have been presented at the Royal Statistical Society Annual Conference and the British Society for Population Studies Annual Conference (both September 2023). We acknowledge the support of staff at the Office for National Statistics and National Records of Scotland with providing access to local authority births data by single year of age of mother. The authors also acknowledge the use of the IRIDIS High Performance Computing Facility, and associated support services at the University of Southampton, in the completion of this work.
Ellison et al. (Mon,) studied this question.