What question did this study set out to answer?

The study aims to develop a method for forecasting surface pressure using barotropic model interactions.

February 5, 2026

A method of obtaining a surface pressure forecast derived from the barotropic model

Key Points

The study aims to develop a method for forecasting surface pressure using barotropic model interactions.
Tested a forecasting method based on 500 mb height changes
Incorporated advective thickness changes for surface pressure prediction
Analyzed the stability of the atmosphere to improve forecasts
Forecast method showed limited accuracy in the Australian region
Major errors linked to 500 mb barotropic forecast
RMS error for surface pressure forecast was about 4 mb
Average Teweles skill score achieved was 55

Abstract

A method for obtaining a surface pressure forecast is tested in which height changes at 1000 mb are assumed to depend on 500 mb height changes from a barotropic forecast and advective thickness changes for the 500-1000 mb layer. The method was found to have limited usefulness for the Australian region since the major errors were associated with the barotropic forecast at 500 mb. However, improvements in the surface pressure forecast were obtained when the stability of the atmosphere was incorporated in the forecast scheme. The RMS error in the surface pressure forecast was of the order of 4 mb while the average Teweles skill score was was 55.

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