The causal effect of the two-for-one strategy in the national basketball association

Abstract This study evaluates the effectiveness of the “two-for-one” strategy in basketball by applying a causal inference framework to play-by-play data from the 2018–19 and 2021–22 National Basketball Association regular seasons. Incorporating factors such as player lineup, betting odds, and player ratings, we compute the average treatment effect and find that the two-for-one strategy has a positive impact on game outcomes, suggesting it can benefit teams when employed effectively. Additionally, we investigate potential heterogeneity in the strategy’s effectiveness using the causal forest framework, with tests indicating no significant variation across different contexts. These findings offer valuable insights into the tactical advantages of the two-for-one strategy in professional basketball.