This longitudinal study examines the role of apprenticeship programs in addressing industry skill shortages and supporting national economic growth, while investigating persistent turnover within the Australian vocational education and training (VET) sector. Using metric data from the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) spanning 1995–2024, trends in apprenticeship commencements, completions, and cancellations were analysed to identify drivers of turnover. Although peaks in commencements and cancellations aligned with the demand-driven access to university education policy (2012–2017), turnover remained consistently high both before and after the demand-driven system era. Findings indicate that turnover is more strongly influenced by broader economic conditions, funding and regulatory policies, adequacy of participant support systems, sector-specific occupational risks, demographic characteristics, and state-level variations in VET commitment. The study recommends targeted policy and programmatic interventions, including strengthened support during economic downturns, region-specific strategies for smaller labour markets, and enhanced policy oversight to improve apprenticeship completion rates and system effectiveness.
Oluwole Alfred Olatunji (Sat,) studied this question.