Game-Theoretic and Adaptive Pricing for Residential P2p Solar Microgrids in Northern Nigeria

Reliable electricity access remains a major challenge in northern Nigeria, particularly in conflict-affected areas such as Maiduguri, where prolonged grid outages have increased dependence on decentralized energy systems. Peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading and renewable microgrids present promising pathways for improving energy access, but their effectiveness relies on appropriate pricing mechanisms and active prosumer participation. This study models and evaluates a residential P2P microgrid situated in the 1000 Housing Estate, Maiduguri, comprising seven households, including one prosumer equipped with a 10kW solar photovoltaic (PV) system and a 40-kWh battery energy storage system (BESS). Using real household load data and a Python-based simulation environment, the study assesses PV generation feasibility, storage performance, P2P surplus allocation, and the economic impacts of three pricing schemes: Fixed-Rate, Adaptive Time-of-Use (ATOU), and Game-Theoretic (GT) pricing. Results show that the PV–BESS system reliably meets 100% of household energy demand with zero unmet load, generating 71.7 kWh/day of surplus energy for P2P distribution. A demand-weighted allocation mechanism achieves equitable sharing of prosumer surplus among households. Cost analysis indicates that GT pricing reduces total system cost by 7.4% relative to the Fixed-Rate tariff and provides the best balance between efficiency and fairness. Although ATOU yields the lowest overall cost, GT pricing demonstrates superior equity and responsiveness to household behavior, as evidenced by Gini coefficients, Lorenz curves, and violin plot distributions. The findings demonstrate that decentralized pricing and P2P trading can significantly improve energy affordability, fairness, and reliability in underserved communities. The study recommends the deployment of smart metering infrastructure, prosumer financing mechanisms, simplified licensing frameworks for P2P trading, and community-based governance structures to support scalable decentralized energy markets in Nigeria.