Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centres in Tanzania Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Efficiency Measurement,

Community health centres (CHCs) play a crucial role in healthcare systems, particularly in resource-limited settings such as Tanzania. A time-series forecasting model was applied to assess the operational efficiency of CHCs over a period from to. The model incorporates statistical measures such as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) with robust standard errors, providing insights into forecast uncertainty and reliability. The forecasting models revealed that there was an improvement in the service delivery efficiency of CHCs by a proportion of 15% over the period studied. This study highlights the potential of time-series forecasting for evaluating healthcare system performance, particularly in resource-limited settings like Tanzania. The findings suggest that further research should focus on extending these models to other health facilities and regions to validate their applicability and effectiveness. Community Health Centres, Efficiency Measurement, Time-Series Forecasting, Service Delivery, Healthcare Systems Treatment effect was estimated with logit (pᵢ) =₀+^ Xᵢ, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.