How Grid Decarbonization Reshapes Distribution Transformer Life-Cycle Impacts: A Forecasting-Based Life Cycle Assessment Framework for Hydro-Dominated Grids

Rising global electricity demand and the expansion of distribution networks require a critical assessment of component-level greenhouse gas contributions. Distribution transformers, although indispensable, have significant life-cycle carbon impacts due to the use of materials, manufacturing, and in-service losses. This study conducts a life-cycle assessment of a single-phase, 75 kVA oil-immersed distribution transformer manufactured in Newfoundland, one of the provinces with the cleanest, hydro-dominated grids in Canada, and evaluates it over a 40-year lifespan. Using a cradle-to-use boundary, the analysis quantifies embodied emissions from raw material extraction, manufacturing, and transportation, alongside operational emissions derived from empirically measured no-load and load losses. All the data are collected directly during the manufacturing process, ensuring high analytical fidelity. The energy efficiency of the transformer is analyzed in MATLAB version R2023b using measured no-load and load losses to generate efficiency, load characteristics under various operating conditions. Under varying load factor scenarios and based on Newfoundland’s 2025 grid intensity of 18 g CO2e/kWh, the lifetime operational emissions are estimated to range from 0.19 t CO2e under no-load operation to 4.4 t CO2e under full-load conditions. A linear regression-based decarbonization model using Microsoft Excel projects grid intensity to reach net-zero around 2037, two years beyond the provincial target, indicating that post-2037 transformer losses will remain energetically relevant but carbon-neutral. Sensitivity analysis reveals that temporary overloading can substantially elevate lifetime emissions, emphasizing the value of smart-grid-enabled load management and optimal transformer sizing. Comparative assessment with fossil fuel-intensive provinces across Canada demonstrates the dominant influence of grid generation mix on life-cycle emissions. Additionally, refurbishment scenarios indicate up to 50% reduction in cradle-to-gate emissions through material reuse and oil reclamation. The findings establish a scalable framework for integrating grid decarbonization trajectories, life-cycle carbon modelling, and circular-economy strategies into sustainable distribution network planning and transformer asset management.