In recent years, dust storms have become a significant issue in West Asia and the Middle East, causing concern among countries in the region. Iran is particularly impacted by these fine dust particles due to its geographical location and prevailing west-to-east wind patterns. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the local effects of fine dust, the town of Sarpol-e Zahab was selected as a research site. The study aimed to investigate the environmental, social, economic, political, and defense-security consequences of this weather phenomenon. The initial phase of the study involved analyzing trends, atmospheric patterns, and the source of dust storms using climate database information. Data from the Copernicus website was used to determine the frequency of dusty days. The NetCDF data was converted into a raster format using R software, and annual and monthly data for the years 2001–2020 were extracted for the Sarpol-e Zahab station coordinates using ARC GIS software. The MODIS sensor's Deep Blue algorithm was employed to calculate optical depth values and derive the AOD index for the period from 2001 to 2020. An in-depth analysis was conducted on a significant dust storm that occurred on April 2nd and 5th, 2008. Sea level pressure and geopotential height data were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR database and visualized using GRADS software. The HYSPLIT air parcel tracking model was used to track and monitor dust storms in the affected area. The analysis revealed a peak in dust storms between 1998 and 2020, with a severe storm occurring from April 2 to 5, 2008, originating in western Iraq and eastern Syria and moving towards western Iran. The second phase of the study focused on estimating the security implications of dust storms through expert interviews and literature review. Twenty experts from various fields provided input on the findings using the fuzzy Delphi method in three rounds. Following expert validation, a questionnaire was distributed to 350 individuals in the statistical community. The results of this section were analyzed using the PLS structural equation model. The study results suggest that the environmental and political aspects are more closely linked to the indicators in the appropriate dimension of the measurement model. The factor loading analysis of the items showed that the main effects of fine dust included a rise in illegal border movements and smuggling activities, a decline in the city's plant greenery, an increase in plant and animal pests, and a rise in street protests and urban riots. The structural model results showed that the political dimension was more strongly correlated with the other dimensions, highlighting its central influence on the impacts of dust storms in the study area. The highest correlations with environmental consequences were seen in indicators of rising pests, plant diseases, and decreasing plant greenness, scoring 0.89 and 0.88, respectively, all influenced by fine dust. In the cultural-social dimension, the most significant correlations were found in indices of a general increase in poverty and road accidents, scoring 0.87 and 0.86. In the economic dimension, increased medical expenses and decreased tourist numbers had a correlation of 0.85. The political dimension was affected by growing ethnic and religious dissatisfaction and street protests, with a correlation of 0.88. The defense-security dimension was notably impacted by the increase in illegal border crossings and security vulnerabilities, scoring 0.9 and 0.87. Indicators related to negative impacts on ancient and eco-tourism buildings and the cancellation of sporting events were excluded from the model due to scores below 0.7.
Jaf et al. (Fri,) studied this question.