Swine influenza virus A (SIV-A) is endemic in hog farms globally, causing significant economic losses to the swine industry. While vaccination is a recommended control strategy, its economic value in specific production phases remains under-evaluated. This study investigated the economic viability of SIV-A vaccination in a U. S. wean-to-finish commercial farm using a stochastic epidemic model. A cost-benefit analysis was performed to estimate the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Return on Investment (ROI) of swine vaccination. In the absence of vaccination, the model predicted a high within-farm attack rate of approximately 82. 5 % (95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 81 % - 0. 84 %). Economic analysis showed that the profitability of SIV-A vaccination was highly dependent on vaccine efficacy. Vaccine efficacy below 70 % was shown to be not economically viable, yielding negative NPV and BCR below 1. Conversely, vaccination with ≥ 80 % efficacy was profitable, with BCRs ranging from 1. 54 (95 % CI: 1. 538, 1. 54) to 4. 09 (95 % CI: 4. 082, 4. 092) and net profits varying from US0. 90 (95 % CI: US0. 79, US1. 02) per pig up to US3. 41 (95 %CI: US3. 40, US3. 41) per pig. Vaccination against SIV-A in wean-to-finish settings was shown to be an economically favorable intervention when the vaccine is highly efficacious against the circulating SIV-A subtype. Sensitivity analysis indicated that vaccine efficacy, the cost of vaccination, and influenza-induced mortality rates were the most critical drivers determining the economic success of the program.
Ratterree et al. (Fri,) studied this question.