Does vocational education foster economic development? Empirical evidence from structural and quality perspectives in China

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of vocational education on economic development in China from the dual perspectives of structural alignment and educational quality. It seeks to determine whether and how vocational education contributes to regional economic growth. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2005–2021), this study employs fixed-effects and threshold regression models to examine how vocational education structure and quality affect economic development. Robustness tests and regional heterogeneity analysis are conducted to ensure validity. Findings Both structural optimization and quality improvement in vocational education significantly promote economic development, with synergistic threshold effects between the two. Regional disparities exist, with stronger effects in eastern and central China. Results remain robust across alternative model specifications. Practical implications Policymakers should emphasize not only the expansion of vocational education but also its structural integration with evolving economic needs and the enhancement of teaching quality. Tailored policies are recommended to address regional disparities, such as promoting industry–education collaboration in less developed areas. The evidence from China offers a valuable reference for other countries seeking to leverage vocational education for sustainable economic development. Originality/value This research provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of vocational education's economic returns through simultaneously examining structural and qualitative dimensions – a perspective largely underexplored in existing literature, particularly in the context of China. The use of subnational data and rigorous econometric strategies offers novel insights into how vocational education supports economic development under varying regional conditions.